Issue #5: Most People Quit at 31°F

When Nothing's Happening, Everything's Happening

I've got a confession about my relationship with progress. It's peppered with missed opportunities, self-doubt, and a few spectacular flops.

Advanced statistics? Made it three weeks before the regression models started regressing my will to live. Learning French? Let's just say “je ne comprends pas” pretty much sums up the entire experience. And my golf swing? I'm really good at hitting my driver — straight into the woods. Thankfully, there are 13 other clubs to hide behind.

TBH: had I stuck with any of those, I'd probably be decent by now. (Except the driver thing. Still trying with that — and still threatening squirrels with my slice.)

The potential was there. The patience (and frankly the self-belief)... not so much.

And something tells me I'm not the only one.

We're about to hit that magical time of year when millions of us will craft New Year's resolutions with conviction worthy of a TED Talk. Come mid-January, however, those same resolutions will be gathering dust right next to our unused gym memberships and that bread maker we swore would change everything.

The problem isn't a lack of commitment or capability. It's that we bail before the breakthrough, because we don't understand how progress actually works. (Or we haven't built the right habit mousetrap — but that's a topic for another newsletter.)

The real issue isn’t the plateau itself... It’s what we make it mean.

When progress stalls, most of us assume it says something about us — that we’re not built for it, not disciplined enough, not capable enough. We assume progress should be linear, predictable, and proportional to the effort we’re putting in. We assume that if results don’t show up quickly, something must be wrong.

Our assumptions are wrong.

Progress doesn’t happen in a straight line. It builds invisibly beneath the surface — compounding, layering, preparing — long before anything is visible, just like water heating to a boil. The most powerful changes happen quietly, long before anything bubbles up.

James Clear's research on the Plateau of Latent Potential in Atomic Habits articulates this phenomenon clearly (see what I did there?).

Clear demonstrates through data that breakthrough moments don't happen gradually — they happen suddenly, after long periods of seemingly wasted effort.

He illustrates this with a simple ice cube analogy:

• You're in a room at 25°F.

• The ice sits on the table.

• You warm the room to 26°F.

• Nothing.27°F. Still solid.

• 28°F, 29°F, 30°F, 31°F... the ice remains ice.

• Then, at 32°F, everything shifts. The ice melts in what feels like an instant.

That one degree didn't create the transformation. All the previous degrees did.

The work wasn't wasted — it was accumulating, preparing for the phase shift that would look “sudden” to anyone not paying attention.

Most people quit at 31°F. Don’t be most people.

The Slow-Cook Method

In The Business Buffet, I call this the Momentum Mirage — that deceptive stretch where you're putting in the work but seeing zero results.

It feels like you're stuck. Like your effort is evaporating in real time. Like maybe you should just give up and try something easier.

But here's what's actually happening: you're heating water from 25°F to 31°F. Nothing visible is changing. The ice is still solid. But you're one degree away from a complete phase shift — from ice to water, from stuck to flowing, from plateau to breakthrough.

This isn't just a feel-good metaphor. Neuroscience backs it up.

Research published in The Journal of Neuroscience found that when adults practiced juggling for three months, their brains showed no immediate structural changes. But with continued effort, MRI scans revealed increased gray matter in regions tied to motor and visual coordination.

Translation: your brain was quietly rewiring itself the whole time, even when progress felt nonexistent.

The same invisible progress drives business breakthroughs.

Airbnb spent 1,000 days in what co-founder Brian Chesky called the "trough of sorrow" — flat bookings, skeptical investors, no visible momentum. But beneath the surface, they were refining their product, building relationships, laying groundwork.

When their moment came, it looked sudden. But it had been years in the making.

Now, I know what you're thinking: “How do I know if I'm at 31°F or just wasting my time?”

Fair question.

Balancing “don't quit at 31°F” with “maybe it's time to cut my losses” comes down to one simple distinction: Is this developing me or draining me?

Slow progress isn't a red flag — stagnation is.

If you're learning, deepening your understanding, building relationships, or seeing even the faintest signal of potential, you're likely in the Momentum Mirage and should keep the heat on.

But if you're looping the same problems with no growth, no curiosity, and no meaningful upside, that's data too.

Don't quit because it's hard or slow. Move on because the direction no longer makes sense.

Why Momentum Mirage Matters

This isn't just theory. It's how sustainable success actually works.

And understanding it can completely transform how you approach your career, your goals, and those resolutions you're about to declare in about a month. (Yikes, do I have to pretend to give up chocolate so soon again?)

Here’s why this matters:

• The Compound Effect A mere 1% improvement compounded daily for a year doesn't add up to 365% growth — it skyrockets to 3,778%. Small actions compound invisibly until they reach a tipping point that yields seismic results. That weekly one-on-one you're having with your team? That daily gratitude practice? That 10-minute deep work session before checking email? They're not just adding up — they're multiplying beneath the surface.

• Hidden Brain Changes Your brain doesn't care about your timeline. It's busy forming new neural pathways, strengthening connections, and rewiring itself for a breakthrough. The frustration you feel during the plateau? That's your brain doing its hardest work. The boredom you experience during repetition? Research shows it stimulates creativity and problem-solving. Your brain defaults to deeper thinking when deprived of external stimulation.

• Strategic Patience The ability to persist through boredom — to keep showing up when the work feels monotonous — separates high achievers from everyone else. Kobe Bryant's legendary "4 A.M. Club" wasn't exciting or innovative. It was 800 baskets every morning. Boring. Repetitive. Required. As he put it: “Great things come from hard work and perseverance. No excuses.”

Try a Bite This Week

The plateau isn't a problem to solve. It's a phase to navigate.

The plateau also doesn't need more hustle—it needs more trust. Trust in the process, trust in the compound effect, and trust that your brain is doing the work even when you can't see it.

These three practices help you build that trust one day at a time, without toxic positivity or empty motivation.

🍴 The 1% Challenge

Stop thinking transformation. Start thinking tiny. Pick ONE skill and commit to improving it by 1% each day. Not a different thing every day — the same thing, slightly better. One extra push-up today, two tomorrow. Five focused minutes before Slack today, six tomorrow. One sentence written today, two tomorrow. The consistency matters more than the size. But 1% daily on the same thing compounds to 3,778% annually.

🍴 The Narrative Reframe

When you hit a plateau, ask: “What story am I telling myself?” Then reframe it. "I'm failing" becomes "I'm developing." "This isn't working" becomes "The breakthrough is building." "I should quit" becomes "I'm one degree from the phase shift." Your internal story determines whether you persist — or quit at 31°F.

🍴 The Growth Gazette

Keep a breakthrough journal using the SIR method:
Situation (what happened); Internal Dialogue (what you told yourself); Reframe (how you’ll view it differently).
This isn't toxic positivity... It's documenting invisible progress you can't yet see but will appreciate later. Look back, and you'll realize the plateau was never empty.

A Final Thought

In a world of instant delivery, we want the ice to melt at 28°F because we're impatient. We want our brains to rewire on a schedule we control. We want success to arrive exactly when we think it should.

But breakthroughs don't work that way. They're cooking beneath the surface — invisible, inevitable, and entirely on their own timeline.

The question isn't whether progress is happening. It's whether you'll trust the process long enough to see it.

Or trust yourself enough to move on to something worth fighting through the plateau for. Like my putter... hard to slice that one.